Overshooting and the Fed
This post by the FT’s US economics editor Robin Harding is cross-published from FT Money Supply. I think people are confusing two separate questions in the recent debate about wage rises and spare...
View ArticleOvershooting, once and for all
Robin Harding pushes back against Cardiff’s argument that the Fed shouldn’t overreact to incipient signs of labor market tightness, and also against Ryan Avent’s contention that the Fed should try...
View ArticleIn search of agreement on slack and the Fed
Just here for a bit of gap-bridging. Peacemaking. Common ground finding. Evan Soltas and Robin Harding last week offered strong challenges to the try risking an overshoot argument made by Ryan Avent...
View ArticleYellen: four pieces of evidence of slack in the US labour market
From her speech in Chicago: One form of evidence for slack is found in other labor market data, beyond the unemployment rate or payrolls, some of which I have touched on already. For example, the seven...
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US labour market slack: the difficulty with “structural” vs “cyclical” labels
The uncertainty about the extent of US labour market slack continues, and last week’s employment situation report certainly didn’t clarify the issue. Continue reading: US labour market slack: the...
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The Fed’s riposte on short v long-term unemployment
Cross-posted from Money Supply… Continue reading: The Fed’s riposte on short v long-term unemployment
View ArticleBefore Jackson Hole, roundup of Yellen’s quotes on the labor market
Janet Yellen’s speech this Friday at the annual Jackson Hole symposium is titled, with understated simplicity and brevity, “Labor Markets”. The wider symposium is itself themed, “Re-Evaluating Labor...
View ArticleOn wages and inflation: jeers for fears
We live in disinflationary times, at least in the developed world. This doesn’t mean that monetary and fiscal policies lack the potency to offset disinflation or deflation. What it means is that...
View ArticleSlacking to stand still
Our favourite passage of Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole this year wasn’t actually in the text. It was in a footnote. Specifically, footnote 7: “For convenience, the analysis here is presented as...
View ArticleAre some workers “slacker” than others?
We don’t really understand why inflation-targeting central bankers closely monitor the job market. For starters, there is something unseemly about connecting consumer price inflation to theories of...
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